Learn how the World Bank Group is helping countries with COVID-19 (coronavirus) on the World Bank Group COVID-19 Hub.

Find the latest eLibrary content related to COVID-19 (coronavirus) here.

Books

Abstract:

Presents the findings concerning the risks, impacts, and mitigation of pandemics as well as knowledge gaps of pandemics. Pandemics—defined as large-scale outbreaks of infectious disease that can greatly increase morbidity and mortality over a wide geographic area and cause significant economic, social, and political disruption—have increased in number over the past century because of increased global travel and integration, urbanization, changes in land use, and greater exploitation of the natural environment. These trends will likely continue and intensify. Significant policy attention has focused on the need to identify and limit emerging outbreaks that might lead to pandemics and to expand and sustain investment to build preparedness and health capacity. The international community has made progress toward preparing for and mitigating the impacts of pandemics, but despite these improvements, significant gaps and challenges exist in global pandemic preparedness. Progress toward meeting the International Health Regulations (IHR) has proven uneven, and many countries have been unable to meet basic requirements for compliance, leading to pandemics having a disproportionately higher mortality impact on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

References

  • Achonu, C, A Laporte, and M A Gardam
    . 2005. “The Financial Impact of Controlling a Respiratory Virus Outbreak in a Teaching Hospital: Lessons Learned from SARS.” Canadian Journal of Public Health 96 (1): 52–54. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Anthony, S J, J H Epstein, K A Murray, I Navarrete-Macias, and C M Zambrana-Torrelio
    , and others. 2013. “A Strategy to Estimate Unknown Viral Diversity in Mammals.” MBio 4 (5): e00598-13. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Arabi, Y M, H H Balkhy, F G Hayden, A Bouchama, and T Luke
    , and others. 2017. “Middle East Respiratory Syndrome.” New England Journal of Medicine 376 (6): 584–94. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • ARC (African Risk Capacity)
    . 2016. “African Risk Capacity Strategic Framework 2016–2020.” Strategy and policy document, ARC, Johannesburg, South Africa. Google Scholar
  • Arimah, B C
    2010. “The Face of Urban Poverty: Explaining the Prevalence of Slums in Developing Countries.” In Urbanization and Development: Multidisciplinary Perspectives, edited by
    Beall, Jo, Basudeh Guha-Khasnobis, and Ravi Kanbur
    , 143–64. Oxford: Oxford University Press. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • ASPR (Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response)
    . 2014. “Public Health and Medical Situational Awareness Strategy.” Strategy document for situational awareness implementation plan U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, DC. Google Scholar
  • Aylward, B, P Barboza, L Bawo, E Bertherat, and P Bilivogui
    and others. 2014. “Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa—The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections.” New England Journal of Medicine 371 (16): 1481–95. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Barden-O’Fallon, J, M A Barry, P Brodish, and J Hazerjian
    . 2015. “Rapid Assessment of Ebola-Related Implications for Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health Service Delivery and Utilization in Guinea.” PLoS Currents Outbreaks (August): 7. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.0b0ba06009dd091bc39ddb3c6d7b0826. Google Scholar
  • Barrett, R and P J Brown
    . 2008. “Stigma in the Time of Influenza: Social and Institutional Responses to Pandemic Emergencies.” Journal of Infectious Diseases 197 (Suppl 1): S34–S37. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Bedrosian, S R, C E Young, L A Smith, J D Cox, and C Manning
    , and others. 2016. “Lessons of Risk Communication and Health Promotion—West Africa and United States.” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) Supplements 65 (3): 68–74. Google Scholar
  • Bootsma, M C J and N M Ferguson
    . 2007. “The Effect of Public Health Measures on the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in U.S. Cities.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104 (18): 7588–93. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Brattberg, E and M Rhinard
    . 2011. “Multilevel Governance and Complex Threats: The Case of Pandemic Preparedness in the European Union and the United States.” Global Health Governance 5 (1): 1–21. Google Scholar
  • Brende, B, J Farrar, D Gashumba, C Moedas, and T Mundel
    , and others. 2017. “CEPI—A New Global R&D Organisation for Epidemic Preparedness and Response.” The Lancet 389 (10066): 233–35. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Brundage, J F and G D Shanks
    . 2008. “Deaths from Bacterial Pneumonia during 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 14 (8): 1193–99. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Buckley, G J and R E Pittluck
    . 2016. Global Health Risk Framework: Pandemic Financing: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Burns, A, D Van der Mensbrugghe, and H Timmer
    . 2006. “Evaluating the Economic Consequences of Avian Influenza.” Working Paper 47417, World Bank, Washington, DC. Google Scholar
  • Carrasco, L R, V J Lee, M I Chen, D B Matchar, and J P Thompson
    , and others. 2011. “Strategies for Antiviral Stockpiling for Future Influenza Pandemics: A Global Epidemic-Economic Perspective.” Journal of the Royal Society Interface 8 (62): 1307–13. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Chan, E H, T F Brewer, L C Madoff, M P Pollack, and A L Sonricker
    , and others. 2010. “Global Capacity for Emerging Infectious Disease Detection.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107 (50): 21701–6. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Chandy, L, H Kato, and H Kharas
    eds. 2015. The Last Mile in Ending Extreme Poverty. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press. Google Scholar
  • Charu, V, G Chowell, L S Palacio Mejia, S Echevarría-Zuno, and V H Borja-Aburto
    , and others. 2011. “Mortality Burden of the A/H1N1 Pandemic in Mexico: A Comparison of Deaths and Years of Life Lost to Seasonal Influenza.” Clinical Infectious Diseases 53 (10): 985–93. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Chisholm, H
    . 1911. “Cholera.” Encyclopedia Britannica 11 (6): 265–66. Google Scholar
  • Cohen, N J, C M Brown, F Alvarado-Ramy, H Bair-Drake, and G A Benenson
    , and others. 2016. “Travel and Border Health Measures to Prevent the International Spread of Ebola.” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) Supplements 65 (3): 57–67. Google Scholar
  • Cohn, S K
    2007. “The Black Death and the Burning of Jews.” Past and Present 196 (1): 3–36. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Colizza, V, A Barrat, M Barthelemy, A J Valleron, and A Vespignani
    . 2007. “Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Interventions.” PLoS Medicine 4 (1): 95–110. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Daszak, P, D Carroll, N Wolfe, and J Mazet
    . 2016. “The Global Virome Project.” International Journal of Infectious Diseases 53 (Suppl): 36. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Dawood, F S, A D Iuliano, C Reed, M I Meltzer, and D K Shay
    , and others. 2012. “Estimated Global Mortality Associated with the First 12 Months of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A H1N1 Virus Circulation: A Modelling Study.” The Lancet Infectious Diseases 12 (9): 687–95. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • de Wit, E, D Falzarano, C Onyango, K Rosenke, and A Marzi
    , and others. 2016. “The Merits of Malaria Diagnostics during an Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 22 (2): 323–26. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • DeWitte, S N
    2014. “Mortality Risk and Survival in the Aftermath of the Medieval Black Death.” PLoS One 9 (5): e96513. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Diamond, J
    . 2009. Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies. New York: Norton. Google Scholar
  • Dimitrov, N, S Goll, N Hupert, B Pourbohloul, and L Meyers
    . 2011. “Optimizing Tactics for Use of the U.S. Antiviral Strategic National Stockpile for Pandemic Influenza.” PloS One 6 (1): e16094. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Dixon, S, S McDonald, and J Roberts
    . 2001. “AIDS and Economic Growth in Africa: A Panel Data Analysis.” Journal of International Development 13 (4): 411–26. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Domínguez-Cherit, G, S E Lapinsky, A E Macias, R Pinto, and L Espinosa-Perez
    , and others. 2009. “Critically Ill Patients with 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) in Mexico.” Journal of the American Medical Association 302 (17): 1880–87. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Drake, T L, Z Chalabi, and R Coker
    . 2012. “Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Pandemic Influenza Preparedness: What’s Missing?” Bulletin of the World Health Organization 90 (12): 940–41. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Drake, T L, Z Chalabi, and R Coker
    . 2015. “Buy Now, Saved Later? The Critical Impact of Time-to-Pandemic Uncertainty on Pandemic Cost-Effectiveness Analyses.” Health Policy and Planning 30 (1): 100–10. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Elbe, S
    . 2002. “HIV/AIDS and the Changing Landscape of War in Africa.” International Security 27 (2): 159–77. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Epstein, H
    . 2014. “Ebola in Liberia: An Epidemic of Rumors.” New York Review of Books 61 (20): 91–95. Google Scholar
  • Evans, D K, M Goldstein, and A Popova
    . 2015. “Health-Care Worker Mortality and the Legacy of the Ebola Epidemic.” The Lancet Global Health 3 (8): e439–e440. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Falcone, R E and A Detty
    . 2015. “The Next Pandemic: Hospital Response.” Emergency Medical Reports 36 (26): 1–16. Google Scholar
  • Fan, V Y, D. T Jamison, and L S Summers
    . 2016. “The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk.” NBER Working Paper 22137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Farmer, P
    . 1996. “Social Inequalities and Emerging Infectious Diseases.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 2 (4): 259–69. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Fearon, J D and D D Laitin
    . 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” American Political Science Review 97 (1): 75–90. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Ferguson, N M, D A T Cummings, S Cauchemez, C Fraser, and S Riley
    , and others. 2005. “Strategies for Containing an Emerging Influenza Pandemic in Southeast Asia.” Nature 437 (7056): 209–14. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Fischer, J E and R Katz
    . 2013. “Moving Forward to 2014: Global IHR (2005) Implementation.” Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science 11 (2):153–56. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Flahault, A and A J Valleron
    . 1990. “HIV and Travel, No Rationale for Restrictions.” The Lancet 336 (8724): 1197–98. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Fraser, C, S Riley, R M Anderson, and N M Ferguson
    . 2004. “Factors That Make an Infectious Disease Outbreak Controllable.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 101 (16): 6146–51. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Frieden, N M
    1977. “The Russian Cholera Epidemic, 1892–93, and Medical Professionalization.” Journal of Social History 10 (4): 538. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Fullam, J D and N Madhav
    . 2015. “Quantifying Pandemic Risk.” The Actuary 12 (1): 29–34. Google Scholar
  • Gilbert, M, N Golding, H Zhou, G R W Wint, and T P Robinson
    , and others. 2014. “Predicting the Risk of Avian Influenza A H7N9 Infection in Live-Poultry Markets across Asia.” Nature Communications 5 (May):1–7. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Greenhill, K and B Oppenheim
    . 2017. “Rumor Has It: The Adoption of Unverified Information in Conflict Zones.” International Studies Quarterly 61 (3). CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Greer, A L and D Schanzer
    . 2013. “Using a Dynamic Model to Consider Optimal Antiviral Stockpile Size in the Face of Pandemic Influenza Uncertainty.” PLoS One 8 (6): e67253. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Halder, N, J K Kelso, and G J Milne
    . 2014. “A Model-Based Economic Analysis of Pre-Pandemic Influenza Vaccination Cost-Effectiveness.” BMC Infectious Diseases 14 (1): 266–85. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Henao-Restrepo, A M, A Camacho, I M Longini, C H Watson, and W J Edmunds
    , and others. 2016. “Efficacy and Effectiveness of an rVSV-Vectored Vaccine in Preventing Ebola Virus Disease: Final Results from the Guinea Ring Vaccination, Open-Label, Cluster-Randomised Trial (Ebola Ça Suffit!).” The Lancet 389 (10068): 505–18. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Herstein, J J, P D Biddinger, C S Kraft, L Saiman, and S G Gibbs
    , and others. 2016. “Initial Costs of Ebola Treatment Centers in the United States.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 22 (2): 350. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hollingsworth, T D, N M Ferguson, and R M Anderson
    . 2006. “Will Travel Restrictions Control the International Spread of Pandemic Influenza?” Nature Medicine 12 (5): 497–99. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Hooghe, L and G Marks
    . 2003. “Unraveling the Central State, but How? Types of Multi-Level Governance.” American Political Science Review 97 (2): 233–43. Google Scholar
  • ICG (International Crisis Group)
    . 2015. The Politics behind the Ebola Crisis. Crisis Group Africa Report 232, International Crisis Group, Brussels, October 28. Google Scholar
  • IFRC (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies)
    . 2016. World Disasters Report, Resilience: Saving Lives Today, Investing for Tomorrow. Geneva: IFRC. Google Scholar
  • Jain, S, L Kamimoto, A M Bramley, A M Schmitz, and S R Benoit
    , and others. 2009. “Hospitalized Patients with 2009 H1N1 Influenza in the United States, April–June 2015.” New England Journal of Medicine 361 (20): 1935–44. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Jefferson, T, M Jones, P Doshi, E A Spencer, and I Onakpoya
    , and others. 2014. “Oseltamivir for Influenza in Adults and Children: Systematic Review of Clinical Study Reports and Summary of Regulatory Comments.” British Medical Journal 348 (April): g2545. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Jennings, L C, A A Monto, P K Chan, and K G Szucs Nicholson
    . 2008. “Stockpiling Prepandemic Influenza Vaccines: A New Cornerstone of Pandemic Preparedness Plans.” The Lancet Infectious Diseases 8 (10): 650–58. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Johnson, N P A S and J Mueller
    . 2002. “Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918–1920 ‘Spanish’ Influenza Pandemic.” Bulletin of the History of Medicine 76 (1): 105–15. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Jonas, O B
    2013. “Pandemic Risk.” Background paper for World Development Report 2014: Risk and Opportunity; Managing Risk for Development, World Bank, Washington, DC. Google Scholar
  • Jones, D S
    2006. “The Persistence of American Indian Health Disparities.” American Journal of Public Health 96 (12): 2122–34. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Jones, K E, N G Patel, M A Levy, A Storeygard, and D Balk
    , and others. 2008. “Global Trends in Emerging Infectious Diseases.” Nature 451 (7181): 990–93. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Jun, K
    . 2015. “MERS Outbreak Prompts South Korean Stimulus Package.” Wall Street Journal, June 25. Google Scholar
  • Katz, M A, B D Schoub, J M Heraud, R F Breiman, and M K Njenga
    , and others. 2012. “Influenza in Africa: Uncovering the Epidemiology of a Long-Overlooked Disease.” Journal of Infectious Diseases 26 (Suppl 1): S1–S4. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Katz, R
    . 2009. “Use of Revised International Health Regulations during Influenza A (H1N1) Epidemic, 2015.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 15 (8): 1165–70. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Katz, R and R Seifman
    . 2016. “Opportunities to Finance Pandemic Preparedness.” The Lancet Global Health 4 (11): e782–e783. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kavet, J
    . 1977. “A Perspective on the Significance of Pandemic Influenza.” American Journal of Public Health 67 (11): 1063–70. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kelly, H A, P C Priest, and G K Mercer Dowse
    . 2011. “We Should Not Be Complacent about Our Population-Based Public Health Response to the First Influenza Pandemic of the 21st Century.” BMC Public Health 11 (1): 78. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Keogh-Brown, M R and R D Smith
    . 2008. “The Economic Impact of SARS: How Does the Reality Match the Predictions?” Health Policy 88 (1): 110–20. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • KFF (Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation)
    . 2014. “The U.S. Government and Global Emerging Infectious Disease Preparedness and Response.” Fact sheet, December 8, http://kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-government-global-emerging-infectious-disease-preparedness-and-response/. Google Scholar
  • Kim, Y W, S J Yoon, and I H Oh
    . 2013. “The Economic Burden of the 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Influenza in Korea.” Scandinavian Journal of Infectious Diseases 45 (5): 390–96. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Kozlowski, R T and S B Mathewson
    . 1997. “A Primer on Catastrophe Modeling.” Journal of Insurance Regulation 15 (3): 322. Google Scholar
  • Lee, B Y, S T Brown, G W Korch, P C Cooley, and R K Zimmerman
    , and others. 2010. “A Computer Simulation of Vaccine Prioritization, Allocation, and Rationing during the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic.” Vaccine 28 (31): 4875–79. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Lugnér, A K and M J Postma
    . 2009. “Mitigation of Pandemic Influenza: Review of Cost-Effectiveness Studies.” Expert Review of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research 9 (6): 547–58. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Mackowiak, P A and P S Sehdev
    . 2002. “The Origin of Quarantine.” Clinical Infectious Diseases 35 (9): 1071–72. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Mancini, S, M E Coldiron, A Ronsse, B K Ilunga, and K Porten
    , and others. 2014. “Description of a Large Measles Epidemic in Democratic Republic of Congo, 2010–2015.” Conflict and Health 8 (1): 9. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Mangham, L J and K Hanson
    . 2010. “Scaling Up in International Health: What Are the Key Issues?” Health Policy and Planning 25 (2): 85–96. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Mathews, J D, J M Chesson, J M McCaw, and J McVernon
    . 2009. “Understanding Influenza Transmission, Immunity, and Pandemic Threats.” Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 3 (4): 143–49. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • McCoy, T
    . 2014. “Why the Brutal Murder of Several Ebola Workers May Hint at More Violence to Come.” Washington Post, September 19. Google Scholar
  • McKibbin, W J and A A Sidorenko
    . 2006. “Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza.” Analysis, Lowy Institute for International Policy, Sydney, Australia. Google Scholar
  • Mihigo, R, C V Torrealba, K Coninx, D Nshimirimana, and M P Kieny
    , and others. 2012. “2009 Pandemic Influenza A Virus Subtype H1N1 Vaccination in Africa—Successes and Challenges.” Journal of Infectious Diseases 206 (Suppl 1): S22–S28. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Milián, E and A A Kamen
    . 2015. “Current and Emerging Cell Culture Manufacturing Technologies for Influenza Vaccines.” BioMed Research International 2015 (1): 1–11. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Miller, M A, C Viboud, D R Olson, R F Grais, and M A Rabaa
    , and others. 2008. “Prioritization of Influenza Pandemic Vaccination to Minimize Years of Life Lost.” Journal of Infectious Diseases 198 (3): 305–11. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Milne, G J, N Halder, and J K Kelso
    . 2013. “The Cost-Effectiveness of Pandemic Influenza Interventions: A Pandemic Severity Based Analysis.” PLoS One 8 (4): e61504. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Moon, S, D Sridhar, M A Pate, J K Jha, and C Clinton
    , and others. 2015. “Will Ebola Change the Game? Ten Essential Reforms before the Next Pandemic. The Report of the Harvard–LSHTM Independent Panel on the Global Response to Ebola.” The Lancet 386 (10009): 2204–21. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Morens, D M, J K Taubenberger, and A S Fauci
    . 2008. “Predominant Role of Bacterial Pneumonia as a Cause of Death in Pandemic Influenza: Implications for Pandemic Influenza Preparedness.” Journal of Infectious Diseases 198 (7): 962–70. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Morens, D M, J K Taubenberger, G K Folkers, and A S Fauci
    . 2010. “Pandemic Influenza’s 500th Anniversary.” Clinical Infectious Diseases 51 (12): 1442–44. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Morse, S S
    1995. “Factors in the Emergence of Infectious Diseases.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 1 (1): 7–15. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Morse, S S, J A K Mazet, M Woolhouse, C R Parrish, and D Carroll
    , and others. 2012. “Prediction and Prevention of the Next Pandemic Zoonosis.” The Lancet 380 (9857): 1956–65. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • MSF (Médecins Sans Frontières)
    . 2015. Pushed to the Limit and Beyond: A Year into the Largest Ever Ebola Outbreak. Report, MSF, London. Google Scholar
  • Mullard, A
    . 2016. “New Vaccine Coalition Targets Epidemics.” Nature Reviews Drug Discovery 15 (10): 669. Google Scholar
  • Murphy, F A
    1998. “Emerging Zoonoses.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 4 (3): 429–35. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Murray, C J, A D Lopez, B Chin, D Feehan, and K H Hill
    . 2006. “Estimation of Potential Global Pandemic Influenza Mortality on the Basis of Vital Registry Data from the 1918–2. Pandemic: A Quantitative Analysis.” The Lancet 368 (9554): 2211–18. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Nannei, C, S Goldin, G Torelli, H Fatima, and K Kumar
    , and others. 2016. “Stakeholders’ Perceptions of 10 Years of the Global Action Plan for Influenza Vaccines (GAP)—Results from a Survey.” Vaccine 34 (45): 5393–99. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Neiderud, C J
    . 2015. “How Urbanization Affects the Epidemiology of Emerging Infectious Diseases.” Infection Ecology and Epidemiology 5: 27060. doi:/10.3402/iee.v5.27060. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Oppenheim, B, M D Gallivan, N Madhav, N Brown, and V Serhiyenko
    , and others. 2017. “Global Preparedness for the Next Pandemic.” Unpublished manuscript. Google Scholar
  • Oshitani, H, T Kamigaki, and A Suzuki
    . 2008. “Major Issues and Challenges of Influenza Pandemic Preparedness in Developing Countries.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 14 (6): 875–80. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Osterholm, M T
    2005. “Preparing for the Next Pandemic.” New England Journal of Medicine 352 (18): 1839–42. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Paez-Espino, D, E A Eloe-Fadrosh, G A Pavlopoulos, A D Thomas, and M Huntemann
    , and others. 2016. “Uncovering Earth’s Virome.” Nature 536 (7617): 425–30. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Park, J and J Kim
    . 2015. “Hong Kong Sets ‘Serious’ Response to South Korea’s MERS Outbreak.” Reuters, June 8. Google Scholar
  • Parpia, A S, M L Ndeffo-Mbah, N S Wenzel, and A P Galvani
    . 2016. “Effects of Response to 2014–2015 Ebola Outbreak on Deaths from Malaria, HIV/AIDS, and Tuberculosis, West Africa.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 22 (3): 433–41. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Parveen, S, M S Islam, M Begum, M Alam, and H M S Sazzad
    and others. 2016. “It’s Not Only What You Say, It’s Also How You Say It: Communicating Nipah Virus Prevention Messages during an Outbreak in Bangladesh.” BMC Public Health 16 (1): 726–37. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Pasquini-Descomps, H, N Brender, and D Maradan
    . 2016. “Value for Money in H1N1 Influenza: A Systematic Review of the Cost-Effectiveness of Pandemic Interventions.” Value in Health 20 (6): 819–27. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Pathmanathan, I, K A O’Connor, M L Adams, C Y Rao, and P H Kilmarx
    , and others. 2014. “Rapid Assessment of Ebola Infection Prevention and Control Needs—Six Districts, Sierra Leone, October 2015.” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) 63 (49): 1172–74. Google Scholar
  • Pérez Velasco, R, N Praditsitthikorn, K Wichmann, A Mohara, and S Kotirum
    , and others. 2012. “Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations of Preparedness Strategies and Interventions against Influenza Pandemics.” PloS One 7 (2): e30333. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Person, B, F Sy, K Holton, B Govert, and A Liang
    , and others. 2004. “Fear and Stigma: The Epidemic within the SARS Outbreak.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 10 (2): 358–63. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Pike, B L, K E Saylors, J N Fair, M Lebreton, and U Tamoufe
    , and others. 2010. “The Origin and Prevention of Pandemics.” Clinical Infectious Diseases 50 (12): 1636–40. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Platt, C
    . 2014. King Death: The Black Death and Its Aftermath in Late-Medieval England. Oxon U.K.: Routledge. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Porta, M
    , ed. 2014. A Dictionary of Epidemiology. 6th ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Price-Smith, A T
    2001. The Health of Nations: Infectious Disease, Environmental Change, and Their Effects on National Security and Development. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Price-Smith, A T
    2009. Contagion and Chaos: Disease, Ecology, and National Security in the Era of Globalization. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Google Scholar
  • Pritchett, L, M Woolcock, and M Andrews
    . 2013. “Looking Like a State: Techniques of Persistent Failure in State Capability for Implementation.” Journal of Development Studies 49 (1): 1–18. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Radonovich, L J, P D Magalian, M K Hollingsworth, and G Baracco
    . 2009. “Stockpiling Supplies for the Next Influenza Pandemic.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 15 (6): e1. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Reperant, L A, G. F Rimmelzwaan, and A D M E Osterhaus
    . 2014. “Advances in Influenza Vaccination.” F1000 Prime Reports 6: 47. Google Scholar
  • Richardson, J S, J D Dekker, M A Croyle, and G P Kobinger
    . 2010. “Recent Advances in Ebolavirus Vaccine Development.” Human Vaccines 6 (6): 439–49. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Roca, A, M O Afolabi, Y Saidu, and B Kampmann
    . 2015. “Ebola: A Holistic Approach Is Required to Achieve Effective Management and Control.” Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology 135 (4): 856–67. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Rosello, A, M Mossoko, S Flasche, A J Van Hoek, and P Mbala
    , and others. 2015. “Ebola Virus Disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1976–2015.” eLife 2015 (4): e09015. Google Scholar
  • Rubinson, L, R Mutter, C Viboud, N Hupert, and T Uyeki
    , and others. 2013. “Impact of the Fall 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 Pandemic on US Hospitals.” Medical Care 51 (3): 259–65. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Samaan, G, M Patel, B Olowokure, M C Roces, and H Oshitani
    , and others. 2005. “Rumor Surveillance and Avian Influenza H5N1.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 11 (3): 463–66. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Sands, P, A El Turabi, P A Saynisch, and V J Dzau
    . 2016. “Assessment of Economic Vulnerability to Infectious Disease Crises.” The Lancet 388 (10058): 2443–48. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Sands, P, C Mundaca-Shah, and V J Dzau
    . 2016. “The Neglected Dimension of Global Security—A Framework for Countering Infectious-Disease Crises.” New England Journal of Medicine 374 (March):1281–87. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Schäferhoff, M, S Fewer, J Kraus, E Richter, and L H Summers
    , and others. 2015. “How Much Donor Financing for Health Is Channelled to Global versus Country-Specific Aid Functions?” The Lancet 386 (10011): 2436–41. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Seto, W H, D Tsang, R W H Hung, T Y Ching, and T K Ng
    , and others. 2003. “Effectiveness of Precautions against Droplets and Contact in Prevention of Nosocomial Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).” The Lancet 361 (9368): 1519–20. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Shuaib, F, R Gunnala, E O Musa, F J Mahoney, and O Oguntimehin
    , and others. 2014. “Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak—Nigeria, July–September 2015.” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) 63 (39): 867–72. Google Scholar
  • Simonsen, L, P Spreeuwenberg, R Lustig, R J Taylor, and D M Fleming
    , and others. 2013. “Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study.” PLoS Medicine 10 (11): e1001558. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Siu, J Y M
    . 2015. “Influence of Social Experiences in Shaping Perceptions of the Ebola Virus among African Residents of Hong Kong during the 2014 Outbreak: A Qualitative Study.” International Journal for Equity in Health 14 (1): 88. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Smith, R D, M R Keogh-Brown, T Barnett, and J Tait
    . 2009. “The Economy-Wide Impact of Pandemic Influenza on the UK: A Computable General Equilibrium Modelling Experiment.” British Medical Journal 339 (November): b4571. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Smolinsky, M S, M. A Hamburg, and J Lederberg
    eds. 2003. Microbial Threats to Health: Emergence, Detection, and Response. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. Google Scholar
  • Stoddard, A, A Harmer, K Haver, G Taylor, and P Harvey
    . 2015. The State of the Humanitarian System: 2015 Edition. London: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance in Humanitarian Action/Overseas Development Institute. Google Scholar
  • Thomas, M R, G Smith, F H G Ferreira, D Evans, and M Maliszewska
    , and others. 2015. “The Economic Impact of Ebola on Sub-Saharan Africa: Updated Estimates for 2015.” Working Paper 93721, World Bank, Washington, DC. Google Scholar
  • Tilman, D and M Clark
    . 2014. “Global Diets Link Environmental Sustainability and Human Health.” Nature 515 (7528): 518–22. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Tizzoni, M, P Bajardi, C Poletto, J J Ramasco, and D Balcan
    , and others. 2012. “Real-Time Numerical Forecast of Global Epidemic Spreading: Case Study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm.” BMC Medicine 10 (1): 165. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Toole, M J and R J Waldman
    . 1990. “Prevention of Excess Mortality in Refugee and Displaced Populations in Developing Countries.” Journal of the American Medical Association 263 (24): 3296–302. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Twu, S J, T Chen, J C J Chen, S J Olsen, and L T Lee
    and others. 2003. “Control Measures for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Taiwan.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 9 (6): 718–20. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Tyler, T
    . 2016. “IATA 2016 Annual Review.” Annual review publication, International Air Transport Association (IATA), Montreal. Google Scholar
  • UNDESA (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs)
    . 2015. “World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables.” Report ESA/P/WP.241, UNDESA, New York. Google Scholar
  • UNDP (United Nations Development Programme)
    . 2014. “Assessing the Socio-Economic Impacts of Ebola Virus Disease in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone: The Road to Recovery.” Synthesis report, UNDP, New York. Google Scholar
  • UNDP (United Nations Development Programme)
    . 2017. “A Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of the Zika Virus in Latin America and the Caribbean: With a Focus on Brazil, Colombia, and Suriname.” Synthesis report, UNDP, New York. Google Scholar
  • USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development) and CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
    . 2016. “West Africa—Ebola Outbreak, Fact Sheet #11, Fiscal Year (FY) 2015.” Fact sheet, USAID, CDC, June 24. Google Scholar
  • U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
    . 2005. “HHS Pandemic Influenza Plan.” Strategic, guidance, and operational planning document U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, DC. Google Scholar
  • U.S. Homeland Security Council
    . 2006. “Implementation Plan for the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza.” Plan document U.S. Homeland Security Council, Executive Office of the President of the United States, Washington, DC. Google Scholar
  • Van Boeckel, T P, S Gandra, A Ashok, Q Caudron, and B T Grenfell
    , and others. 2014. “Global Antibiotic Consumption 2000 to 2010: An Analysis of National Pharmaceutical Sales Data.” The Lancet Infectious Diseases 14 (8): 742–50. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Van Boeckel, T P, W Thanapongtharm, T Robinson, C M Biradar, and X Xiao
    , and others. 2012. “Improving Risk Models for Avian Influenza: The Role of Intensive Poultry Farming and Flooded Land during the 2004 Thailand Epidemic.” PLoS One 7 (11): e49528. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Viboud, C, M Miller, D R Olson, M Osterholm, and L Simonsen
    . 2010. “Preliminary Estimates of Mortality and Years of Life Lost Associated with the 2009 A/H1N1 Pandemic in the US and Comparison with Past Influenza Seasons.” PLoS Currents 20 (March): RRN1153. Google Scholar
  • Viboud, C, L Simonsen, R Fuentes, J Flores, and M A Miller
    , and others. 2016. “Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic.” Journal of Infectious Diseases 212 (11): 738–45. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Waggoner, J J and B A Pinsky
    . 2016. “Zika Virus: Diagnostics for an Emerging Pandemic Threat.” Journal of Clinical Microbiology 54 (4): 860–67. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Walker, N F and C J Whitty
    . 2015. “Tackling Emerging Infections: Clinical and Public Health Lessons from the West African Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak.” Clinical Medicine 15 (5): 457–60. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Wallinga, J and P Teunis
    . 2004. “Different Epidemic Curves for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Reveal Similar Impacts of Control Measures.” American Journal of Epidemiology 160 (6): 509–16. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Wang, M D and A M Jolly
    . 2004. “Changing Virulence of the SARS Virus: The Epidemiological Evidence.” Bulletin of the World Health Organization 82 (7): 547–48. Google Scholar
  • Watts, J
    . 2004. “China Culls Wild Animals to Prevent New SARS Threat.” The Lancet 363 (9403): 134. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • WHO (World Health Organization)
    . 1978. “Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever in Zaire, 1976. Report of an International Commission.” Bulletin of the World Health Organization 56 (2): 271–93. Google Scholar
  • WHO (World Health Organization)
    . 2005. International Health Regulations. Geneva: WHO. Google Scholar
  • WHO (World Health Organization)
    . 2010. “What Is a Pandemic?” WHO, February 24. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/frequently_asked_questions/pandemic/en/. Google Scholar
  • WHO (World Health Organization)
    . 2013a. “Global Health Workforce Shortage to Reach 12.9 Million in Coming Decades.” News release, November 11. Google Scholar
  • WHO (World Health Organization)
    . 2013b. Global Survey on National Vaccine Deployment and Vaccination Plans for Pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 Vaccine—2010. Report of survey findings, WHO, Geneva. Google Scholar
  • WHO (World Health Organization)
    . 2013c. “IHR Core Capacity Monitoring Framework: Checklist and Indicators for Monitoring Progress in the Development of IHR Core Capacities in States Parties.” International Health Regulations (2005) document, Reference WHO/HSE/GCR/2013.2, WHO, Geneva. Google Scholar
  • WHO (World Health Organization)
    . 2014. “Summary of States Parties 2013 Report on IHR Core Capacity Implementation: Regional Profiles.” International Health Regulations (2005) document, Reference WHO/HSE/GCR/2014.10, WHO, Geneva. Google Scholar
  • WHO (World Health Organization)
    . 2015a. “Successful Ebola Responses in Nigeria, Senegal, and Mali.” In One Year into the Ebola Epidemic: A Deadly, Tenacious, and Unforgiving Year. Paper Series, January 2015, WHO, Geneva. Google Scholar
  • WHO (World Health Organization)
    . 2015b. “WHO Model List of Essential Medicines, 19th ed.” WHO, Geneva. Google Scholar
  • WHO (World Health Organization)
    . 2016a. Ebola Situation Report. Weekly data report, April 15. Google Scholar
  • WHO (World Health Organization)
    . 2016b. “Influenza (Seasonal).” Fact sheet, November. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs211/en/. Google Scholar
  • WHO (World Health Organization)
    . 2016c. “Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework Partnership Contribution: Annual Report 2015.” Document WHO/OHE/PED/2016.01, Pandemic Influenza Preparedness (PIP) Secretariat, WHO, Geneva. Google Scholar
  • WHO (World Health Organization)
    . 2017. Situation Report: Zika Virus, Microcephaly, Guillain-Barré Syndrome. Weekly data report, February 2. Google Scholar
  • Wolfe, N D, P Daszak, A M Kilpatrick, and D S Burke
    . 2005. “Bushmeat Hunting, Deforestation, and Prediction of Zoonotic Disease.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 11 (12): 1822–27. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Wolfe, N D, C. P Dunavan, and J Diamond
    . 2007. “Origins of Major Human Infectious Diseases.” Nature 447 (7142): 279–83. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Wolicki, S B, J B Nuzzo, D L Blazes, D L Pitts, and J K Iskander
    , and others. 2016. “Public Health Surveillance: At the Core of the Global Health Security Agenda.” Health Security 14 (3): 185–88. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Woolhouse, M E J and S Gowtage-Sequeria
    . 2005. “Host Range and Emerging and Reemerging Pathogens.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 11 (12): 1842–47. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • World Bank
    . 2012. People, Pathogens, and Our Planet, Volume 2: The Economics of One Health. Report 69145, World Bank, Washington, DC. Google Scholar
  • World Bank
    . 2014. “The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic: Short and Medium Term Estimates for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.” Working Paper 90748, World Bank, Washington, DC. Google Scholar
  • World Bank
    . 2016. “World Bank Group Ebola Response Fact Sheet.” Fact sheet, World Bank, April 6. http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/health/brief/world-bank-group-ebola-fact-sheet. Google Scholar
  • Yamey, G, M Schäferhoff, O K Aars, B Bloom, and D Carroll
    , and others. 2017. “Financing of International Collective Action for Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness.” The Lancet Global Health 5 (8): e742–e744. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Yehualashet, Y G, P Mkanda, A Gasasira, T Erbeto, and A Onimisi
    , and others. 2016. “Strategic Engagement of Technical Surge Capacity for Intensified Polio Eradication Initiative in Nigeria, 2012–2015.” Journal of Infectious Diseases 213 (Suppl 3): S116–S23. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Yu, H, J T Wu, B J Cowling, Q Liao, and V J Fang
    , and others. 2014. “Effect of Closure of Live Poultry Markets on Poultry-to-Person Transmission of Avian Influenza A H7N9 Virus: An Ecological Study.” The Lancet 383 (9916): 541–48. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Zell, R
    . 2004. “Global Climate Change and the Emergence/Re-emergence of Infectious Diseases.” International Journal of Medical Microbiology Supplements 293 (Suppl 37):16–26. CrossrefGoogle Scholar
  • Zinsstag, J, E Schelling, K Wyss, and M B Mahamat
    . 2005. “Potential of Cooperation between Human and Animal Health to Strengthen Health Systems.” The Lancet 366 (9503): 2142–45. CrossrefGoogle Scholar